One of the reasons that most state governments in the United
States mandate that all drivers purchase automobile insurance is to avoid the
problem of "adverse selection," or the process by which the most
risky insurance customers force out the least risky. If prices cannot adjust
based on individual risk, the most expensive insurance customers drive up the
average premiums and make it uneconomical for the least risky to buy. Adverse
selection is also why American adults are now mandated to purchase health
insurance through Obamacare. There are economic arguments for these compelled
purchases, but real-life examples show that theory and practice often differ.
How Private
Insurance Companies Protect Against Adverse Selection
Adverse selection is a problem of knowledge, probabilities
and risk. In most situations, it is fairly easily overcome with differential
pricing mechanisms. Suppose two different individuals apply for car insurance
through Allstate Corporation (NYSE: ALL). The first applicant is a 22-year-old
male, drives to and from work every day, has a history of speeding and has
previous accidents on record. The second applicant is a 40-year-old mother who
often takes public transit to work and has not had a ticket or accident in over
a decade.
From the insurer's perspective, the first applicant is far
riskier and far more likely to cost it money. The second applicant is a mild
risk. To identify which is riskier, Allstate asks probing questions during the
application process and also consults its actuarial tables; it turns out that
20-something men are the most expensive to insure. Thus, Allstate can
compensate for the extra risk by charging a higher premium to the first
applicant.
Adverse
Selection and Other Solutions
Individuals vary in their need for risk protection and in
their knowledge of risks and risk tolerance. Insurance companies might have
even less knowledge of individual circumstances. If insurance companies fail to
distinguish between high-risk and low-risk customers, meaning they are unable
to perform effective actuarial processes, then the average premium charged to a
consumer might be so high that the low-risk customers drop out of the market.



